Editorial Type:
Article Category: Research Article
 | 
Online Publication Date: Apr 26, 2024

Spline Plotting Method to Visualize Climate Change of Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in North Carolina

Page Range: 8 – 18
DOI: 10.7572/JNCAS-D-23-00002.1
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Abstract

Degree-days are variables utilized for the planning, estimation and assessment of heating requirements and cooling demands of building interiors. Heating Degree-Days (HDD) are the number of degrees that a day's mean temperature is below 65° Fahrenheit (18° Celsius). Cooling Degree-Days (CDD) are the number of degrees that a day's mean temperature is above 65° Fahrenheit (18° Celsius). Long and short term climate changes have the potential to change heating and cooling. Original data were NOAA Climate Division areal averages for monthly total HDD and monthly total CDD. Raw data were downloaded from a NOAA online database. Univariate statistics for all eight North Carolina climate divisions were calculated. The time series of annual total HDDs and CDDs is complete from 1895 to 2017. A spline routine was fit through the series in order to best visualize trends. Results indicate that annual total HDD and CDD have changed over time, but the time series relationships are not linear. The most recent decades show that annual CDDs are rapidly increasing, while HDDs steadily decline. Energy demands for summer cooling will not be offset by decreased energy demands in winter.

Keywords: climate change; time series; Degree-Days; climate divisions; North Carolina
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Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.

Map of the climate divisions of North Carolina.

Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Southern Mountains region (climate division 01).

Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Northern Mountains region (climate division 02).

Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Northern Piedmont region (climate division 03).

Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the central piedmont region (climate division 04).

Fig. 6.
Fig. 6.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Southern Piedmont region (climate division 05).

Fig. 7.
Fig. 7.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Southern Coastal Plain region (climate division 06).

Fig. 8.
Fig. 8.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Central Coastal Plain region (climate division 07).

Fig. 9.
Fig. 9.

Spline plot of annual total Cooling Degree-Days 1895 to 2017, in the Northern Coastal Plain region (climate division 08).

Fig. 10.
Fig. 10.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Southern Mountains region (climate division 01).

Fig. 11.
Fig. 11.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Northern Mountains region (climate division 02).

Fig. 12.
Fig. 12.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Northern Piedmont region (climate division 03).

Fig. 13.
Fig. 13.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Central Piedmont region (climate division 04).

Fig. 14.
Fig. 14.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Southern Piedmont region (climate division 05).

Fig. 15.
Fig. 15.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Southern Coastal Plain region (climate division 06).

Fig. 16.
Fig. 16.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Central Coastal Plain region (climate division 07).

Fig. 17.
Fig. 17.

Spline plot of total winter season Heating Degree-Days 1895-96 to 2016-17, in the Northern Coastal Plain region (climate division 08).